Tuesday, April 12, 2011

War Times ...!

War Times ..! History : A collection of crimes , follies and misfortunes of mankind – Voltaire.

I was grown up in south of India and currently resides in Hyderabad as most of you aware but not in Mumbai financial capital of India . Of course Sir John Templeton and legendary Investor warren Buffet never lived in New York city .Hyderabad is a peaceful and secured city in India , people leads a comfortable and peaceful life like any other city in India unlike Tripoli , Cairo or Bahrain. As we are progressing into the month of April , beginning of new financial year for Indian Economy renewed exuberance is creeping into the financial markets and stock markets. I can see lot of new cars on the roads including mine. As cars are treated to be prosperity and Economic indicators of the nation .This Financial year is crucial for stock markets after the rebound from financial crises . In the world of Investing , there are Truths , there are lies , there are statistics , there are facts . The world we live in is no longer simple, But it is complex . The only worrying factor to me for Indian economy is not monsoons or corporate earnings nor inflation and corruption , but is geopolitics. Yes every thing in the world has to move in a cycle, even the War . As technical analysts on stock markets how they predict the market's support and resistance levels of indices, basing on the previous volumes and trading patterns . Through war cycle we can predict the wars to come. Back home UPA Led government is happiest ,ever since Indian cricket team winning Cricket world cup especially their victory on Pakistan in semi finals ! Thanks to cricket world cup and Indian cricket team . The key reason was all the national media attention was diverted towards the world of cricket from politics ,telecom 2G issues. Prime minister Mr. Singh went one step ahead and invited rival cousin Mr. Gilani P.M of Pakistan to India to build hostile relationship with arch rival nation. Where there was no concrete and amicable solutions to the issues between the two countries from last 60 years. I am sure there will not be a solution in next 60 years also for the same if history is the proof for future on geopolitical science. United states president Obama speaks about patriotism and human rights in U.N security council. Patriotism means not invading Iraq or war in Afghanistan or bombing Libya , Its stand for sacrifices and I am sure Americans can't afford for the same now !. Only thing they are interested is printing money till the time Dollar lost its value as measure of exchange and store of value. The day US Administration desires these formulas won't work and west financial condition deteriorate the only option to them is encourage the geopolitical tensions across the globe. For common man in India it sounds stupid to think and read about these issues , who are habituated to comfortable and peaceful life . But if You enlarge your global vision the geopolitical tensions are accentuating at faster pace. The crux is growth is concentrated in Asia but also the threat . 60% population lives in Asia and India ,China, Pakistan and Korea are Nuclear club counties and in the middle east Iran is trying to book its berth for the club. Geopolitical tensions are going up on daily basis across the globe, starting from Ivory coast , Libya ,Egypt in Africa. Middle east countries like Syria ,Bahrain, Israel ,Afghanistan . In Asia border issues between China ,India and Pakistan .Political tension between Japan and China . Between North Korea and South Korea . If these tensions prevails for a longer period and increases then USA's war chest and military order book will do well . So they have vested interest in encouraging these geopolitical tensions. The Swiss hates Germans , Germans hate the French , the French hate English and every one hates Americans. Each of these nationalities carries certain profile in your head and evokes a certain reactions. And all these issues will definitely going to impact prices of commodities like crude oil and base metals and global financial systems and finally our life’s and portfolios in India . I encourage investors in India to start paying utmost attention towards the geopolitical issues across the globe which will have greater impact on financial and stock markets than India's strong domestic story . I am sure and confident growing geopolitical tensions will change the face of financial markets. I believe in war cycle theory , but I am not sure when it will intensifies today ,tomorrow or after 10 years , but I am confident we are nearing to the next War cycle. "Reality does not depart even when you stop believing in it." I am not Dr Doom but try to be optimistic and look for opportunities from these developments .For successful investing is not depends upon the city you lives but its depends on how much attention you pay to the developments and predicting its impacts and interpreting the same.

1 comment:

  1. Nice article. Be an optimist and live life enjoying fully :)